November 3rd, 2004

Shrub says "See Figure 1."

State of the World

Here's what I see so far...

Shrub has 249 confirmed electoral votes. I'll credit him 5 for New Mexico, he's leading there by 29,582 votes with 99% of precints reporting (according to cspan.org.) 254. Ohio would sink the win. He has a small lead of about 11K in Iowa, with 98% reporting, but Iowa hasn't counted absentee ballots yet, and those flipped Iowa last time, so we can't call that yet.

Shrub also leads Nevada by 15K with 82% reporting--the remaining precints are in the two most populous counties, Washoe (Reno) and Clark (Las Vegas). Shrub leads Washoe by only 2,450 (2%) with 72% reporting, but Kerry leads by 25,313 (5%) in Clark, with 84% reporting. So Nevada could still fall either way, C-SPAN calling it to Shrub aside.

Kerry, holding Washington, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Hawaii, has 242 electoral votes. He's leading Wisconsin by 49,894 (1%) with 94% reporting. He needs Ohio's 20, but that doesn't guarantee a win. Shrub could keep Iowa (7) and take a late surge in Wisconsin (10) and win without it. Kerry still falls short with Ohio, so he needs either Iowa and Nevada (5), or Wisconsin alone.

Ohio's (black Republican) Secretary of State told the TV media there are some half million provisional ballots. They won't even begin counting them for several days. Shrub's lead of 140,223 (3%) might disappear, depending on what the provisionals are. If Iowa and Wisconsin go to Shrub, Ohio is moot. If either of them go to Kerry, we won't have an answer for possibly three or four weeks.

Ohio, for the most part, is the ball game.

I'm going to bed.
  • Current Mood
    anxious anxious
Shrub says "See Figure 1."

A moment of transition

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows, the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows.

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or the dog just died
Everbody talkin', to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long-stemmed rose
Everybody knows.

-- Leonard Cohen, "Everybody Knows", I'm Your Man

Here's where we are, particularly if you're gay and live in one of those eleven states that had ballot measures to sanction hatred of you:
So you vote for television, and everyone else, as far as your eye can see, votes to fuck you with switchblades. That's voting. You're welcome."

-- Warren Ellis (writing Spider Jerusalem in Transmetropolitan

jwz quoted it today.