Jason Lindquist (jlindquist) wrote,
Jason Lindquist

  • Mood:

State of the World

Here's what I see so far...

Shrub has 249 confirmed electoral votes. I'll credit him 5 for New Mexico, he's leading there by 29,582 votes with 99% of precints reporting (according to cspan.org.) 254. Ohio would sink the win. He has a small lead of about 11K in Iowa, with 98% reporting, but Iowa hasn't counted absentee ballots yet, and those flipped Iowa last time, so we can't call that yet.

Shrub also leads Nevada by 15K with 82% reporting--the remaining precints are in the two most populous counties, Washoe (Reno) and Clark (Las Vegas). Shrub leads Washoe by only 2,450 (2%) with 72% reporting, but Kerry leads by 25,313 (5%) in Clark, with 84% reporting. So Nevada could still fall either way, C-SPAN calling it to Shrub aside.

Kerry, holding Washington, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Hawaii, has 242 electoral votes. He's leading Wisconsin by 49,894 (1%) with 94% reporting. He needs Ohio's 20, but that doesn't guarantee a win. Shrub could keep Iowa (7) and take a late surge in Wisconsin (10) and win without it. Kerry still falls short with Ohio, so he needs either Iowa and Nevada (5), or Wisconsin alone.

Ohio's (black Republican) Secretary of State told the TV media there are some half million provisional ballots. They won't even begin counting them for several days. Shrub's lead of 140,223 (3%) might disappear, depending on what the provisionals are. If Iowa and Wisconsin go to Shrub, Ohio is moot. If either of them go to Kerry, we won't have an answer for possibly three or four weeks.

Ohio, for the most part, is the ball game.

I'm going to bed.

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